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Predictive microbiology for food manufacturers

The shelf life on the pack, proved by calculation instead of by three months of waiting

SALVEDA reads the recipe, the process and the real temperature of the cold chain, computes how the dangerous microorganisms will behave, and issues the finished justification dossier that an inspector and a retail chain auditor will accept

See a calculation
3–7 daysinstead of 8 to 16 weeks
4–5×lower cost per product
20–40%shelf-life days recovered
Justification dossier, extract signed
Product item
Chilled potato tortilla
Target organism
Listeria monocytogenes
Regulatory category
supports growth
19days justified shelf life, safety margin of 12 percent applied
Laboratory verification
one confirmatory test
Issued in
4 days

Every dossier carries the version of the recipe, the version of the model and the name of the specialist who signed it

The problem

A duty that a small manufacturer physically cannot discharge

Proving a shelf life costs between €1,500 and €4,000 for one product and takes eight to sixteen weeks, and the whole procedure starts again whenever the recipe, the supplier or the packaging changes

Three quarters of the food companies in Spain employ fewer than ten people and keep no microbiologist. The obligation, however, contains no exemption by headcount: it falls on a cheese dairy of six people exactly as it falls on a factory of six hundred

FROM 2 APRIL 2026

Understating became expensive

The prevention of food loss is now an obligation with a hierarchy of priorities and reporting, and the penalties reach half a million euro. Setting fifteen days where twenty-eight are achievable stopped being a free strategy

The justified shelf life calculated, documented, defensible
FROM 1 JULY 2026

Overstating became unsellable

For products that support the growth of Listeria monocytogenes, absence in 25 grams now applies through the whole period on the market unless the manufacturer has demonstrated that the level stays under 100 colony-forming units per gram

Without a justification the batch falls under a criterion that chilled goods cannot meet in practice, which makes it impossible to sell
With an empty technical file the shelf life is set by analogy or on the advice of the packaging supplier, and it carries no evidential weight
With a justification the same document answers the inspector, the chain auditor and the loss prevention plan at once
The product

This is what the calculation looks like from the inside

Move the parameters of a real product and watch the growth curve, the moment the critical threshold is reached and the justified shelf life change together with them

The dashed curve is what a model trained on a laboratory culture medium predicts. The solid one is the same model after our matrix correction. The distance between them is the days that over-caution takes away from a manufacturer

Input parameters

Six of the eight fields of the working prototype

19days justified shelf life after the matrix correction
supports growth
corrected for the real food matrix uncorrected laboratory model regulatory threshold, 100 cfu per gram horizontal axis, days of storage
Correcting the model for a real matrix recovers 5 days of shelf life that the laboratory curve would have taken away

The demonstration runs on published models and open parameters. In the workstation the same calculation runs on your recipe, on the temperature series from your data loggers, and ends with a signed dossier

What changes

The price of a justification, before and after

A subscription to the middle tariff costs less over a whole year than a single challenge test on a single product, so the price objection is settled by arithmetic before the conversation starts

current practice with SALVEDA
One product, average across the range
€1,500–4,000
€300–900
One product with no test required
€1,500–4,000
€250–600
A range of twenty items, per year
€30,000–80,000
€6,000–18,000
Time to a result
8–16 weeks
3–7 days
The right-hand column is stated on a single basis: the share of the subscription plus the residual cost of confirmatory testing where it stays mandatory
IndicatorCurrent practiceWith SALVEDAChange
Recalculation after a recipe changein practice the full cost againzero, included in the subscriptioneliminated
Selecting and rejecting formulations3–5 months1–2 weeks10× faster
Full development cycle of a new product4–6 months6–8 weeks3× faster
Cost of one recipe iteration€1,500–4,000zero, a few minuteseliminated
Tests across a range that falls into three categoriesone per itemone per categoryfrom 20 to 3
Architecture

One computational core, three ways of using it

The same core serves the quality specialist, the retail shelf and the domestic refrigerator, and every measurement taken at the far end of the chain comes back and sharpens the calculation at the near end

Core Matrix correction layer Real cold chain layer Library of secondary models Library of primary models

PRO

Workstation of the quality specialist
  • Justified shelf life and the regulatory category of every product item
  • A finished dossier issued under the signature of a compliance specialist
  • The minimum sufficient test plan and the order to the laboratory
  • The reformulation copilot for a target shelf life

RETAIL

Remaining shelf life of a specific batch
  • The temperature history of the batch instead of an idealised four degrees
  • A decision on markdown, display priority, donation or processing
  • An entry that goes straight into the loss prevention reporting

CASA

What a household actually has left
  • The real remaining shelf life after the pack has been opened
  • The difference between the date that ends safety and the date that ends quality
  • A heightened-caution mode for those who need one
  • Measured domestic conditions returning into the core
Talk to us

Send us one product and we will show the calculation on it

Tell us what you make and where the shelf life currently comes from. We will come back with the parameters that decide the answer for your category, and with an honest note on where a laboratory test still remains mandatory

  • A reply from a person, not an automatic sequence
  • No obligation and no data left with us if you decide against it
  • Conversations in Spanish, Catalan, English and French
Thank you, the enquiry has reached us. We answer within one working day, from an address at salveda.eu

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